Opinion
For Democrats, replacing Biden will solve one problem but create another
Bruce Wolpe
Senior fellow at the US Studies Centre and former political stafferIf US President Joe Biden had executed on his strategy for the debate with his Republican challenger, Donald Trump, we would not be here right now.
Biden wanted an early debate to change the trajectory of the campaign that had him lagging, effectively tied head-to-head for the national vote, but trailing in most of the battleground swing states that will decide the election.
He got his preferred debate format and rules. Everyone – even many in the Trump camp – was expecting to see the Prosecutor-In-Chief take Trump down as an extremist and disgraced convicted felon who would eviscerate America’s democracy.
Instead, it was Biden whose flailings, freezing and mutterings allowed Trump to execute on his strategy for the debate: to show that Biden was no longer fit for duty and must be removed from office. Seared into the public’s lens on this election is a view that while both candidates are too old, it is Biden who wears that burden more heavily.
The post-debate polls show Biden with a record low approval today of 36 per cent. No president seeking re-election has won from there. Biden’s television interview last week was primed to recover steadiness, authority and command. He failed. Biden is resolute that he will continue the campaign – that he will not stand aside unless “the Lord Almighty” counsels him otherwise.
But there was one moment when Biden’s words opened the trap door on the platform on which he is standing. George Stephanopoulos of ABC America asked: “And if you stay in and Trump is elected and everything you’re warning about comes to pass, how will you feel in January?” Biden replied: “I’ll feel as long as I gave it my all and I did the good as job as I know I can do, that’s what this is about.”
No, Mr President, sorry. This is about defeating Trump – and not about whether you did your best and lost. Representative Adam Schiff, who was the lead House manager of the impeachment of Trump for the January 6, 2021 insurrection, and who is favoured in his race for the US Senate in California, said in response to Biden: “That is the answer that most concerned me as well. This is not just about whether he gave it the best college try, but rather whether he made the right decision to run or to pass the torch.”
The transaction costs of Biden refusing to pass the torch are enormous. If Biden stays in the race, we will not know the answer to Stephanopoulos’ question until the day after the election. The fear driving Democratic members of the House and Senate to conclude that Biden must stand aside is the fear that Biden’s staying in the race will directly affect the control of Congress.
Democrats are within five seats of taking control of the House from Republicans. Until the debate, those prospects looked very strong. After the debate, what is clear is that Biden at the top of the ticket could cost several gains in House seats. A Democratic House can stop Trump’s budget, kill his legislative initiatives and call his cabinet officials to account. If Biden stays in, will this guardrail on Trump be saved?
This is why several senior House members have asked Biden to stand aside. Democrats have the same fear regarding the Senate. There will be at least 50 Republican senators after the election. Even if all the other Democrats win all their races in all the contested seats, and Biden loses, Trump will control the Senate through his vice president. A Republican House and Senate mean nothing less than Trump tyranny in Congress.
Replacing Biden with another nominee also has huge transaction costs. For example, if his successor is someone other than Vice President Kamala Harris, he or she will not have immediate access to the $US240 million ($356 million) cash-in-hand Biden campaign funds. Money will have to be raised from scratch.
If Biden steps aside, Harris would probably declare and start seeking the party’s support. She is not especially popular today, but over the past year she has made an exceptional mark on abortion rights, gun control and on the world stage representing the US. Her star is rising.
If the party chooses someone else, the rejection of Harris – as the first black woman vice president – would jeopardise those two constituencies who help form the bedrock of the Democratic vote. Harris’ defeat in seeking the presidential nomination would be likely to depress enthusiasm and turnout in November, costing Democrats the election.
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris together on July 4. Harris has been dismissed as unpopular, but her star is rising.Credit: Bloomberg
The stark contrast of the Democrats’ implosion cannot continue to go on as the Republicans meet next week to crown Trump and his new vice presidential pick. Biden is the ultimate decider on whether to stay on or to step aside and unite the party. If this political crisis is to reach a peak later this week, the telltale sign will be a meeting in the Oval Office between Biden and the most senior Democrats – the House and Senate leaders – at which they would ask Biden that he step aside.
As pressure continues to build on Biden, a media and political blitz is now on to head off such a reckoning. Biden has written to Democrats in Congress. “I am firmly committed to staying in this race, to running this race to the end, and to beating Donald Trump.” If Biden prevails and stays, the transaction cost of another public speaking episode will be catastrophic come November.
Bruce Wolpe is a senior fellow at the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre. He has served on the Democratic staff in the US Congress and as chief of staff to former prime minister Julia Gillard.
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