Paris for $1108 return? Olympics or not, flights to Europe are cheap

Sydney to Paris return, July 18 – Aug 22

Return economy fares with China Eastern start from $1141 on Skyscanner but $1850 on the airline’s website. Other airlines’ economy and premium economy prices are similar to those out of Melbourne.

Melbourne to Frankfurt return, July 18 – Aug 22

China Eastern again comes up trumps with a return economy fare starting from $1109, but on the airline’s website, that fare is much more, starting from $2597.

That’s not far off Vietnam Airlines’ premium economy fare, from $2850, or $3496 aboard Cathay Pacific.

Melbourne to London return, July 18 – Aug 22

China Eastern fares start from $1202, or $1888 on the airline’s website. Emirates is charging from $2173, and Qatar Airways $2447.

In premium economy, the cheapest fare is from $3681 flying a combination of China Eastern and Virgin Atlantic. Aboard Singapore Airlines, premium economy fares start from $4934.

Melbourne to Paris return, Sept 10 – Oct 9

The fare with Vietnam Airlines starts at $1520, but it is $1465 on the airline’s website. Fly with Emirates, and the same flight will cost from $2424. Vietnam Airlines also has the cheapest premium economy seat, from $3539.

The breakdown

Economy class airfares to Europe have tumbled compared with the same period in 2023. Not so much for premium economy and business classes, but the heat has come out of the back end of the aircraft. The most likely reason is a rebalancing of supply and demand, as Traveller predicted late last year. In February 2024, the most recent month for which figures are available from the Bureau of Infrastructure and Transport Research Economics (BITRE), there were 4.17 million seats available on international flights into and out of Australia. That’s a 35 per cent increase on the number of seats available for the same month in 2023.

One of the airlines that has increased seat availability the most over that period is China Eastern. In February 2024, according to BITRE, the airline carried 89,000 passengers on flights into and out of Australia. In that same month in 2023, the figure was fewer than 9000. That increase means downward pressure on airfares.

The keenest bargains aboard China Eastern Airlines flights are those booked through OTAs such as Aunt Betty, BYO Jet, and Kiwi.com. Book the same ticket with the airline, and you’ll pay at least $600 more. It’s unusual to see such a gap between the prices offered by an OTA and those offered by the airline operating the service. That gap can’t be explained by shaving off some services such as checked baggage allowance and free seat allocation, which is one way that OTAs offer cheaper prices than the airlines. The most likely reason is that those OTAs are sitting on a pile of unsold tickets to Europe, and thus the knockdown prices.

By comparison, the fares aboard China Southern Airlines are about par with those on China Eastern published on the airlines’ websites. Return fares to Paris and London from Melbourne and Sydney are about $200 cheaper when booked with OTAs via Skyscanner.

Looking beyond the summer months, fares in September are slightly higher, which could mean demand is greater as Aussie travellers look to dodge the peak summer crowds and travel in the less busy months of September and October. However, if demand stays low, expect prices to drop over the next couple of months.

What about business class fares?

The cheapest return business class fare between Melbourne and Paris for July 18 to August 22 is once again from China Eastern, at $5949 on Skyscanner, but $9314 on the China Eastern website. Singapore Airlines charges $8815, but the fare aboard Swiss starts from $8043 for a codeshare flight aboard Cathay Pacific via Hong Kong. That suggests demand for seats at the front end remains buoyant. It’s the number of economy seats relative to demand that has boomed, and that’s where the bargains are.

*Unless stated otherwise, the flight prices below all come from Skyscanner, sourced on June 12, 2024.