Race-by-race tips and preview for Warwick Farm on Wednesday
By Nick Berney
Selections based on a heavy track. Monitor for bias/pattern.
Race 1 - 12:50PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1200 METRES)
Keen on 4. Tarpaulin, who brings a dominant ratings/sectional profile and has a positive race set-up. The Godolphin galloper was heavily backed first-up at this track and distance a fortnight ago, and although having his chance, his effort was full of merit against the clock when running second behind a smart type. He sprinted hard and went through the line full of energy, recording one of the fastest final 200m splits of the meeting. That race rated well against the day, and the margins throughout confirmed the quality. He will be fitter for that, maps to have all favours and repeating that last-start figure will make him hard to hold out.
Racing returns to Warwick Farm on Wednesday for an eight-race card.Credit: Getty
Dangers: 1. Trunk, who resumes, has had the usual Waterhouse and Bott two-pattern trials. Expect him to improve sharply out of them into this assignment. The colt’s debut effort was solid behind subsequent group 3 placegetter Stay Focused, and if he can get back to that level, he can be in the finish with Nash Rawiller riding. 13. Scintilla got too far back on debut from a wide draw and had the race shape against. To her credit, she ran on well and clocked fast closing splits. The filly can settle closer from the inside draw and represents value. 5. Delrico, a nice type, has trialled well and add 8. Cindersea, who won well at Newcastle in solid time.
How to play it: Tarpaulin to win.
Race 2 - 1:25PM JAMES SQUIRE HANDICAP (1200 METRES)
7. Pink Shalala finds a winnable race second-up and expect him to step off his first-up placing at Wyong. The three-year-old got into an awkward spot prior to the turn, but he had nothing to bring him into the race and had too much to do after balancing up in the straight. Additionally, he raced as if he would benefit from the run, but still knuckled down to find the line. All key indicators suggest improvement. He maps to have all favours, the step back in distance suits, and he is coming through a high-rating race. Likeable profile.
Dangers: 6. Drama Dodger had only one trial before her first-up run at Wyong, where she got too far back. However, her performance had merit after being checked and blocked at key stages in the straight, and she still clocked the meeting’s fastest final 200m to just miss in a tight finish. 1. Coincide is wound right up for this assignment and 5. Ces Soirees La has trialled well enough.
How to play it: Pink Shalala to win.
Race 3 - 2:00PM ADMIRE MARS AT ARROWFIELD HANDICAP (1100 METRES)
15. Du Cap has raced well in her first campaign and has run to a consistent figure this prep that can put her in the finish. The filly led at a good-even tempo last start at Wyong, over 1100m, and battled on well to finish fourth. She can bounce back here with a fitness edge and is proven on rain-affected ground. In addition, she maps well and is a knockout chance. Each-way.
Dangers: Key late market watch on NZ import 7. Mckenzie, who brings strong form lines/figures and can rate to win. 3. Love And Light will be fitter and 8. Fiorenza will hit the line hard.
How to play it: Du Cap each-way.
Race 4 - 2:35PM TAB HANDICAP (2130 METRES)
Leaning towards 13. Golden Pierro, who is on an upwards ratings spiral. He went to a new level last start at Hawkesbury when winning with style. The gelding was suited to leading at a slow pace, but he showed a turn of foot and late strength, indicating the rise in trip or more pressure would pose no issue. He is in form, has a strong platform and will push forward from the middle draw.
Dangers: 12. Futtaim has had factors against this prep but can bounce back here. His peak figure came at this track on a heavy-rated surface over a similar distance last prep. 5. Monarchs Brae, now at optimal fitness, will roll forward and be tough to get past. 3. Elsie May steps sharply in distance but has strong form on heavy-rated surfaces.
How to play it: Golden Pierro to win.
Race 5 - 3:10PM HYLAND RACE COLOURS HANDICAP (1000 METRES)
3. Wingardium has looked sharp, winning two recent trials, and she looks wound up for this assignment. The mare resumes off a 138-day break, and showed speed in her latest heat when moving with style before pricking her ears on the line. She raced well first-up last prep with excuses and is ready to sprint fresh.
Dangers: 4. World Alliance was incredibly well-backed first-up at Hawkesbury, and overcame trouble to score. He savaged the line to clock the meeting’s quickest final 200m, and he can be smothered away doing no work in this event from the soft gate. 6. Elegant Empress relishes rain-affected going. Market watch on 5. Hi Dubai, who had no luck first-up.
How to play it: Wingardium to win.
Race 6 - 3:45PM PINATUBO @ DARLEY HANDICAP (1600 METRES)
3. Mickey’s Medal has raced well in his past few starts and has run to a consistent figure that puts him in the finish. He is coming through a strong time race at Hawkesbury that produced solid margins throughout, which confirmed the quality. He has a tactical map advantage over some of his key rivals, and the claim suits. Each-way.
Dangers: 4. Headley Grange had the pace and bias against him last start in a stronger grade at Rosehill Gardens. After getting too far back, the gelding had too much to do but made up significant ground in the straight and ran solid closing splits. He rises eight kilograms but drops significantly in grade and returns to his home track. 8. Guzumped is suited to heavy going, and Nash Rawiller will suit him. 9. Mostro is a last-start winner, and stepping out to the 1600m should pose no issue.
How to play it: Mickey’s Medal each-way.
Race 7 - 4:20PM OLE KIRK FIRST YEARLINGS HANDICAP (1300 METRES)
Keen on 11. Kerguelen, who profiles well for this assignment. All key indicators suggest he is set to peak third-up. The Godolphin galloper bolted in to score by 9.5 lengths on debut and then just missed in a tight finish at this track and distance 14 days ago. The gelding SPed $1.70 but lost his momentum prior to the turn before being outpaced up-tempo. Further, once balanced, he savaged the line, with the clock backing up his late visual strength, and finished second. The anticipated race shape will suit here. With even luck, expect him to be hard to hold out with a dominant last-start figure.
Dangers: 5. Sweysive, who resumes, is wound up for this after winning two trials, and he maps to have all favours. 12. Serene Nic ran hidden closing splits last start and 15. Let Me Reign can improve down in the weights.
How to play it: Kerguelen to win.
Best Bet: Race 1 # 4 - Tarpaulin
Next Best: Race 7 # 11 - Kerguelen
Best Value: Race 3 # 9 – Patience Is Virtue
Supplied by Racing NSW
Full form and race replays available at racingnsw.com.au